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Moore Musings

A good night for Barack Obama, but not the decisive night he needed to end the primary contest with Hillary Clinton.

From Jim Moore, KOIN political analyst (and Pacific University political scientist).

 

A good night for Barack Obama, but not the decisive night he needed to end the primary contest with Hillary Clinton. Obama’s substantial victory in North Carolina shows several things.

• He can win in a big state.

• Even with Bill Clinton charging through every small town in the state, Obama can win decisively.

• He continues to pull away, ever so slowly, from Clinton in the delegate count.

• Obama appears to be back on track as a confident candidate, not one fending off discussions about Jeremiah Wright.

 

A pretty good night for Hillary Clinton, but not the “game changer” she had hoped for.

• Win in Indiana is pretty close—exactly what the polls showed it would be. This keeps Clinton in the race.

• North Carolina should have been a lot closer for the game to have truly changed. Clinton got blown out.

• The math does not look good for Clinton. She could win every primary still out there and still be behind Obama in delegates.

 

Pressure now shifts to the superdelegates. There are about as many uncommitted superdelegates out there as there are regular delegates to be decided in all the rest of the primaries.

The few superdelegates who switched to Obama in the past few days may be sign of things to come. Momentum seems to move back toward Obama.

 

Oregon is still important. Not as important as the undecided superdelegates, but important for each campaign to show that it can gain support from key demographics.

• Can Clinton maintain the support of middle class workers? Watch for her message to target them. Watch for Bill Clinton to reprise his visits to small Oregon towns.

• Can Obama maintain the enthusiasm of relatively new voters? Watch for him to emphasize the war in Iraq, taking on John McCain, and calling for change
Published Wednesday, May 07, 2008 4:15 PM by rspooner

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