Presidential race

The big deal will be if Barack Obama declares victory as a result of the Oregon election. He could nail down enough delegates that it would be impossible for Clinton to overtake him. Note that this does not mean that Obama will have enough delegates to win the nomination outright. That contest will be decided among the undecided super delegates.

U.S. Senate race

Novick and Merkley are fighting for every last vote. All the polling I have seen shows a very close race. Let’s hope it does not end up like the 1992 Democratic primary contest between Les AuCoin and Harry Lonsdale. That race was so close that the winner was not declared for days—331 votes separated winner AuCoin from Lonsdale.

The national role of this elections has taken on added importance because Democrats have been winning special elections across the country for open U.S. House seats.

Does this indicate the kind of election we saw in 2006 during which Democrats won across the board? If that is the case, Gordon Smith could be in big trouble. National Republican leaders have indicated that they need to respond to this fear. Will they cut themselves off from President Bush to do so?

Do the Democratic victories represent local responses to local issues? Then whichever Democratic candidate wins the Oregon primary will have a real uphill battle in the fall. National Democratic leaders are downplaying this possibility.

Spin masters are trying to make both cases, but nobody really knows at this point.