For the first time in over a decade, multiple new office holders have an actual chance to hold power in City Hall. One of the keys to these races, however, is that a candidate must get more than 50% of the vote to win outright in the May primary. If no candidate reaches that threshold, the election continues until November.

Some recent history: In 2004 Nick Fish beat Sam Adams in the primary, but Sam Adams went on to win in November. In 2006 Erik Sten barely got over 50% of the vote, thus avoiding a November election.

Mayoral race

Portland will definitely have a new mayor, but it remains to be seen if that will mean a new face in City Hall. Sam Adams and Sho Dozono have waged a lively campaign (and, as an analyst who likes lively campaigns, thanks to Dozono for staying in the race after being denied public funding) that seems to revolve around leadership style.

The key leadership question seems to be the same one that has been the centerpiece of mayoral campaigns since Bud Clark stormed his way into City Hall in the 1980s—does Portland want a City Hall insider (Sam Adams in this case), or does Portland want a City Hall outsider (Sho Dozono, but a pretty well connected outsider)?

Portlanders were satisfied with an “insider” when they put Vera Katz in office three times. But Portlanders went with the “outsider” when Tom Potter beat a city commissioner in 2004.

Whatever happens, the 50% threshold is crucial. Latest polls show Adams just below 50%, so this election could be in round 1 right now—round 2 to be played out in the fall.

City Commissioner race, seat 1

This seat will definitely bring in new blood to City Hall. There are six candidates, and none of them have served at this level before. Five of the six are getting public financing, so this is a real experiment to see how the public financing system works at getting new people to run for office in Portland.

Since there are six candidates, and since none of them has tremendous name recognition, this race becomes a contest to get second place and force a run-off in November.

Amanda Fritz has run for City Council before, but was one of the many who did not make it to the second round. However, this gives her a little more familiarity with voters. In addition, she has picked up a number of endorsements from media outlets. In a race with low profile candidates, endorsements can actually make a difference.

Charles Lewis got a media endorsement. That puts him on the list of possibles to get that crucial second place. [Full disclosure—Lewis was one of my students during his undergraduate years.]

Chris Smith, Mike Fahey, John Branam, and Jeff Bissonette (names are simply listed in reverse alphabetical order) are all running credible campaigns as well.

Quite frankly, any of these six could make it to the fall election. I have no expectation that any of them can get 50% in the primary.

City Commissioner race, seat 2

A race that opened up when Erik Sten resigned (remember, he was just re-elected two years ago…), this seems to be a one-person race with others vying to make it to the fall election.

Nick Fish is the favorite. He lost to Sam Adams in a city council race in 2004 (won the May primary, lost the November general election). However, best estimate polling shows that Fish has about 30%–40% of the vote.

Jim Middaugh has worked for Erik Sten for a number of years. So he would not be a new City Hall face, but he’d get to cast actual votes during council meetings. Polling shows him barely ahead of the rest of the pack to make it into the fall election.

Ed Garren, Fred Stewart, and Harold C. Williams Two (names listed in alphabetical order) are all hoping that one of them can outpoll Middaugh and make it into the fall elections. Combined, they are the group that will keep Fish from winning the seat outright.