Oregon will play an important role in the fall 2008 elections.

The fifth congressional district seat, currently held by Democrat Darlene Hooley, is up for grabs. The Republicans see it as one of their best shots in the country to gain a seat in the House. Democrats want to prevent that, especially since Democrats look like they will pick up a number of current Republican seats in other parts of the country.

Republican nominee Mike Erickson came through a nasty campaign with a win. It remains to be seen if his issues of cutting taxes and bringing change to D.C. will resonate with voters in the district. In 2006 that same message from that same candidate was soundly trounced by a strong incumbent. Another issue Erickson will have to deal with is the fractures to the Republican electorate brought about by charges from his primary opponent. Most notably, the chair of the most prominent anti-abortion group in Oregon repudiated Erickson and called for him to quit the primary race.

Democratic nominee Kurt Schrader will have to step up several levels to earn the seat. His primary campaign was sleepy and underfunded. He will need to introduce himself to much of the district, then explain why he is the best candidate.

Outside money will be a big factor in the race. Interest groups with all sorts of agendas will be very interested in the district simply because of its importance in determining power within the House of Representatives.

And, as one extra fillip for consideration, every person who has held this seat (Denny Smith-R, Mike Kopetski-D, Jim Bunn-R, and Darlene Hooley-D) has been divorced while in office. I don’t know what this means, but it certainly stands out.

- Jim Moore, KOIN News 6 political analyst