On paper, Gordon Smith is an incumbent without many worries for reelection. He is relatively popular in Oregon, he has won two out of the three statewide elections he has entered (last loss in January 1996), and he has a formidable reelection bank account.

However, some polling shows that Oregonians are growing tired of Senator Smith, especially because they associate him with the Bush administration.

The question: do these voters who want change simply represent the base of the electorate that would never vote for Smith? Or do they represent voters Smith has lost from the crucial center of the electorate—independents, liberal Republicans, conservative Democrats?

At this point, nobody knows the answers to these questions.

New Democratic nominee Jeff Merkley will have to work hard to show that Smith should be replaced. To do this he will have do several things. First, raise a heck of a lot more money than he was able to do in the primary. Second, get beyond the phrases (“…Smith supports the Bush-Cheney plans…”) that just appeal to those who would never vote for Smith. Third, make a strong case that Smith is so bad for Oregon that both of Oregon’s US Senators should come from liberal Portland.

Smith’s defense will be strong. He has changed his views on issues important to Oregonians—he now opposes U.S. Iraq policy more than most Republican senators, and he gave up his active opposition to Oregon’s assisted suicide law after the US Supreme Court upheld it. Smith emphasizes his Republican party membership as a way to fully represent a state with large portions of both Democrats and Republicans—Oregon currently has one of each in the Senate. Smith also emphasizes his residence in the non–Portland area—much of the state supports him simply because he knows about small town issues.

If Smith appears vulnerable, a large amount of interest group money will pour into this race. Republican groups will want to defend the seat. Democratic groups will want to take it.

Watch for significant resources to arrive for Merkley’s campaign during the summer and into September. If Merkley shows that he can use the money well and mount a strong challenge, more money will follow. If Merkley does not do this, watch for the national money to dry up and for Gordon Smith to be reelected rather easily.

And then there is the best hope for Merkley—that the 2008 election will be repeat of the 2006 election in which Republicans across the country lost simply because of their party membership and anger over Iraq. We will not have good idea of this possibility until late summer and early fall.

KOIN News 6 Political Analyst Jim Moore