It’s finally June 3, the day of the last primaries in the 2008 season. Yes, it’s been a long time since January 3 and the Iowa caucuses, but it seems like even longer what with all those candidates campaigning throughout 2007.
While the Republicans decided on a candidate months ago (sorry, Ron Paul supporters…), the Democrats have limped to the end of the process. Tuesday night Obama will probably be within 15 or 20 committed delegates of having the nomination sewn up. Clinton will have to decide whether to concede or fight on in dnc committees and possibly the floor of the national convention.
There are somewhere around 170 superdelegates who have not yet stated their preferences for the Democratic nominee (that 170 is a very approximate number given all the different counts that are out there). Obama will need 15 or 20 of them to win. Clinton will need about 200 of them. Yes, that means that Hillary Clinton must get all of the uncommitted superdelegates, then she must persuade Obama superdelegates to switch allegiance. That’s a pretty tough road.
Will the Democrats change their nomination system? The conventional wisdom (which I agreed with up until a couple of weeks ago) was that an Obama nomination would mean that the party rules pretty much matched up with the enthusiasm of the voters, thus there would be no changes for 2012. Conventional wisdom also noted that a Clinton nomination would seem to be a victory for party rules and committees over the Democratic electorate’s preference for Obama, and that would trigger changes for 2012.
However, the uncertainty hanging over the process seems to have worn down a lot of people. It will not be a surprise if there is an Obama-led change to the rules for 2012. 2012 will be the 40th anniversary of the current system of proportionality and mandatory inclusion of different groups among delegations. That’s a long time for any political system to remain basically untouched. Watch for proposals to make the rules for selecting delegates more uniform among the states. The various primary and caucus systems will remain sacrosanct, but the ways that delegate are allotted could undergo radical change in many states.
In the next few weeks the key for the Democrats will be Hillary Clinton’s decisions. If Obama is to win and win strongly in November, Clinton must become his campaigner-in-chief. She’s got to bring the party together to support him. Obama can win without such support, but the Democratic party may not be in as strong a position as it could be if Clinton does not enthusiastically endorse Obama’s candidacy.