KOIN News Political Analyst Jim Moore
John McCain is running an ad on Oregon television. It stresses his family history of military service, his personal story as a POW in Vietnam, and his commitment to keeping America safe.
Why is he doing this?
Polling from a variety of sources shows Obama with a fairly consistent 10% lead over McCain in Oregon. But, among national campaign strategists, Oregon looks like it could continue its role as a battleground state. Remember that Al Gore only beat George W. Bush by about 7,000 votes in 2000, and Kerry beat Bush by only about 77,000 votes (out of about 1.8 million) in 2004.
Electoral college math says that it is worth it for McCain to see if he can make Oregon a closer race. Looking at states across the country, McCain seems to have a pretty solid 190 to 210 electoral college votes (out of 270 needed). Obama seems to have fewer, about 150–180. Unfortunately for McCain, almost all of the states still up in the air seem to be leaning toward Obama right now. This means that the key states for both campaigns will be Florida, Pennsylvania, and Ohio—all rich with electoral college votes. And vaguely reminiscent of 2000 and 2004…
So, in those states in which McCain is within 10% of Obama, it makes sense for McCain to run some ads, try to change public perceptions, and at least make Obama spend more money in those states to counter McCain.
Will Oregon truly be a battleground state in 2008? I don’t think so at this point. After the 2006 election, it looks like Democrats will be well positioned across the state, and this includes votes for the presidency, as well as other statewide offices (with the exception of Gordon Smith’s U.S. Senate seat), and the state legislature.
McCain will stop spending money here if the poll numbers do not change.
From my point of view, as somebody who likes the political excitement of presidential candidates coming to town, I hope McCain is successful. That way we’ll see both him and Obama for more than a cursory fly-through in early September.
