Moore Musings

by James Moore

Barack Obama is off in Afghanistan and Iraq, and soon to visit the great cities of Europe. In his role as presumptive Democratic presidential nominee, the trip will provide him with an opportunity to show voters in the United States that he has firsthand experience in these important places for U.S. foreign policy.

Polling consistently shows that voters believe John McCain has more foreign policy expertise and that voters trust him more as commander in chief. The visits may not help Obama to surpass McCain’s standing on this particular set of issues, but they will assuage those who want to support Obama but are worried about his international credentials.

Another interesting dynamic will be how Obama is treated by different countries and their leaders. McCain’s visit to Israel and other countries a few months ago had him meeting prime ministers and foreign ministers and looking quite presidential. Obama will get the same treatment. Part of this is planned by the campaigns, but most of it is because these different leaders are hedging their bets, hoping to make a good impression on the next president and lobbying for their governments’ pet projects.

In terms of the election, at this point it does not appear that foreign policy will be the number one reason voters support either candidate. That honor will go to economic issues, as it has for almost every election over the past 100 years. So Obama’s trip takes place in the summer when the electorate is not as attentive as it will be in the fall, it helps him to assure his supporters that their faith in him is not misplaced, and when he gets back the focus will once again be on economics in the United States.

Of course, there is a doomsday scenario, much talked about among some. What happens if there is another terrorist attack before the election? What happens if there is a major change in the dynamic in either Afghanistan or Iraq before the election? Arguments can be made by both the McCain and Obama camps that these hypothetical events could help or hinder their candidates. And both sides are right. In a drastic event, it is the appearance of “presidentialness” that makes the biggest impression, not necessarily the actions (or proposed actions by the candidates).

McCaina and Obama need to be working on their “steely resolve” and their “compassionate concern” responses to prepare for such an event. And they will both defer to President Bush, the actual leader of the United States until January 20, 2009.