By Jim Moore, KOIN political analyst, Pacific University professor

This was written as the candidates talked, so Obama went for the first hour, McCain for the second.

Barack Obama’s time with Rick Warren in front of the Saddleback church crowd showed a candidate at ease with a variety of issues, a candidate who was not afraid to talk about working with his opponent (on campaign finance reform) or in supporting President Bush (on fighting AIDS around the world), and a candidate who really seemed to be getting beyond his stump speeches to deal with Warren’s questions.

There were no bombshells or huge mistakes, so Obama’s performance will reassure his supporters and fail to sway his opponents. The true audience, however, are the 40% of American voters who are undecided between Obama and McCain. They were treated to a thoughtful set of questions and thoughtful answers. If the undecided are looking for a thinker, then Obama will do well.

The audience members were enthusiastic and polite. They almost acted like an audience at a late night television show—laughing and clapping as if on cue. The audience’s unspoken role is one of change in the electorate. From the early 1980s to the 2004 election, a megachurch audience would have been reliably Republican. That is changing. Evidence from the 2006 midterm elections and state elections across the country, as well as polling, show a group of religious voters who are no longer overwhelmingly Republican. They are not necessarily Democratic, but they are a key unknown in the 2008 election.

John McCain wants to keep the megachurch voter in the Republican party, or at least ensure that the megachurch voter casts a ballot for McCain. Barack Obama wants to provide that same voter with a place to go within the American political firmament—not just dissatisfaction with the Republican party, but an actual vote for Obama in 2008.

John McCain’s time with Rick Warren showed a candidate who emphasized his personal story. Many questions took him back to his experiences as a POW in Vietnam. McCain’s independence in Washington seems to flow from this formative experience. Many of McCain’s answers were directly from his books or from his stump speeches. But the relaxed McCain was a very effective communicator, one who mixed humor, policy, and life story in a very convincing way.

Just as with Obama, no bombshells or big mistakes. The big question—does McCain’s independent streak match up with the questioning going on among many megachurch voters? If so, he will do well among them. If his independent streak becomes associated with political expedience, those voters will remain on the fence or even move more strongly to Obama.